An independent nationwide study conducted by financial economist and chartered accountant Dr Evans Duah has placed New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer hopeful Kennedy Ohene Agyapong in a commanding lead ahead of the party’s forthcoming presidential primaries.
The findings, released in a press statement, are drawn from a three-wave delegate preference survey conducted between August 2025 and January 9, 2026. The research tracks how NPP delegates’ preferences have evolved following the party’s defeat in the 2024 general election, offering a rare longitudinal view of shifting political sentiment within the party.
According to Dr Duah, the study benchmarks current delegate preferences against the results of the NPP’s 2023 presidential primaries, allowing for a structured comparison of leadership reassessment during a period of political recalibration.
Nationwide and rigorous methodology
Dr Duah explained that the research adopted a multi-wave tracking design, recognising that post-election shifts in political attitudes occur gradually rather than abruptly. The study achieved full national coverage across all 16 regions and 276 constituencies, targeting the entire universe of 40,988 NPP delegates.
Out of this number, 31,556 interviews were successfully completed, validated, and retained after rigorous quality control processes. Consistent data collection protocols were applied across all three waves to ensure comparability and minimise bias.
To enhance transparency, the analysis was conducted using two scenarios: a Worst-Case scenario, which treats undecided respondents conservatively, and a Best-Case scenario, where undecided delegates are proportionally allocated. Dr Duah noted that this dual approach strengthens confidence in the observed trends.
Agyapong leads under Best-Case scenario
Under the Best-Case scenario in the final wave, Kennedy Agyapong emerged as the clear frontrunner with 52.59 per cent support. He was followed by former Vice-President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia with 36.24 per cent. Dr Bryan Acheampong polled 8.60 per cent, while Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum and Kwabena Agyei Agyapong recorded 2.05 per cent and 0.52 per cent respectively.
Based on these figures, the study concludes that Kennedy Agyapong is on course to win the NPP presidential primaries and secure the party’s flagbearership.
Post-2024 reassessment reshapes contest
The research suggests that delegate preferences have been shaped by a post-2024 reassessment focused on electability, regional balance, coalition-building, and leadership strength. Kennedy Agyapong recorded the strongest positive movement across all three waves, with notable gains in delegate-heavy regions such as Ashanti, Greater Accra, Eastern, Central, Western, and Volta.
Dr Duah attributes this rise to effective post-election positioning, consistent messaging around resilience and job creation, and sustained grassroots engagement.
By contrast, Dr Bawumia experienced a net national decline, maintaining strength in northern regions but losing ground elsewhere as delegates reassessed electoral viability after the 2024 loss.
Commenting on the findings, Dr Duah described the race as having shifted “from fluid reassessment to structured consolidation,” adding that the data-driven trends now provide a clear factual terrain as the NPP primaries draw closer.
